TRUMP’S SECOND PRESIDENCY AND

THE FUTURE OF AVIATION

LIGHTSPEED AHEAD?

Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024 will change the global economy, trade relations, and regulatory policies in significant ways that will not spare the aviation sector either. His first term (2017–2021) had a profound impact on industry, from combative trade policy to deregulation and tax cuts.

Now, with Trump back in the White House in 2025, the pieces in aviation are set for another round of changes. Will these changes fuel the industry’s expansion, or will they create new challenges that might fracture global aviation networks?

Trump’s First Term and What That Means for Aviation

Reflecting on Trump’s first presidency, he made his mark primarily with economic policies that were all about slashing corporate taxes and minimizing federal regulation of what American businesses do. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, allowed for a significant tax break for corporations which lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% serving as a substantial boost for airlines and manufacturers in the aerospace industry. Americans Airlines utilized these tax breaks, which subsidized Boeing, into growing their fleet, modernizing their infrastructure, and boosting shareholder dividends. However, these benefits were reaped until the dual crises of the 737 MAX safety scandal and COVID-19 pandemic altered the entire landscape.

In an effort to fortify the American airline industry during the pandemic, Trump’s administration enacted the CARES Act, which as a part of the plan allocated billions in funding to the domestic airlines. While this kept the airline industry from totally collapsing, Trump’s trade policies put a strain on international relationships. His administration’s trade wars with China and the European Union resulted in increased tariffs and retaliatory action that impacted demand for aircraft and the supply chain. Boeing saw a decrease in orders as China abandoned them as a primary customer in favor of Airbus, which was expected. European imports of aircraft into the USA also faced higher tariffs, creating friction in the Atlantic relations of aviation.

Policies regarding the environment have also undergone change as Trump was elected for his first term. He opted out of the Paris Climate Agreement and made cuts to a range of rules that were aimed at cutting down on carbon emissions. This meant that the aviation industry faced less motivation to adopt changes such as the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other green initiatives. While Joe Biden’s government returned to the focus of sustainable aviation policy, Trump’s return raised concerns that economic and industrial focused policies would once more overrule environmental regulations being prioritized.

Aviation in 2025 and Beyond: What to Expect Under Trump’s Second Term

With Trump back in office, several key areas in aviation are very likely to undergo some changes, and they each bring with them a unique set of opportunities and challenges for the sector.

The US-China Trade War: Issues and Boeing’s Prospects

Trump’s trade position on China is perhaps the most worrying thing for the aerospace industry. Trump’s campaign rhetoric would suggest that he intends to introduce a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports, while at the same time placing a 10 percent tarif on all other imports. If these statements were put into action, China would increase retaliatory measures, and especially in the area of aviation.

The Boeing company has had its work cut out for it as it re-establishes its business in China post the 737 MAX crisis. Boeing’s most recent challenges might stem from China increasingly leaning towards Airbus at the expense of Boeing. It doens’t help that the COMAC, which is supported by the state of China, is building the C919 to serve as an alternative to so many Western planes. Should tensions between the two countries extend, China might very well speed up its strategies towards becoming self-sufficient in aerospace fueling the Boeing challenge because this market is one of the most important aviation industries in the world.

Trump’s administration likely means a hike in tariffs for the European Union and that could mean a new term in the trade war between Boeing and Airbus. Trump used his first term to place tariffs on European made Airbus aircraft as a continuation of unresolved issues with WTO. If the U.S. chooses to approach the issue the same way, U.S. carriers like Delta and JetBlue might find it tougher to operate because of the reliance on Airbus aircraft and the increased costs could mean a change in strategy when it comes to the buying of aircraft.

Fuel Prices and Aviation Economics

One of Trump’s most popular policies is energy autonomy which means increased drilling for oil domestically and loosening restrictions on fossil fuels. If these policies succeed, the prices of fuel could fall and that would be beneficial for airlines. Jet fuel is one of the biggest operational expenses for an airline, and fule price decreases would free up capital. Lower fuel prices could enable airlines to lower ticket prices.

The industry’s transformation to green aviation could be hindered by the excessive concentration on conventional energy sources. At the start, the Biden administration brought forward green aviation policies which enhanced SAF adoption. This effort however was expected to be undone by Trump’s policies which overshadowed these efforts. As a result, green aviation across all regions of the United States faced the possibility of being financially unworkable and airlines may push their sustainability investments on the back burner. This puts airlines under the risk of receiving global regulatory scrutiny from various sources such as the ICAO or the Fit For 55 program initiated by the EU.

Aviation Defence And Space

The aerospace industry with the focus on propulsion for example, is another one that was predicted to undergo significant changes within the Trump era. During his first tenure as President, Trump actively lobbied for greater military investment. As a result, he founded the Space Force, which happens to be America’s sixth branch of military, during his previous term. Additionally, these policies should also benefit defense firms such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin on the drone and military aircraft side. It should enable more research on sophisticated military planes and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Policy shifts were also expected to occur for Trump’s return to the moon or long term stations: the Artemis program was set to be supported more vigorously. The focus however under the Trump era was expected to be set towards Space X, Blue Origin, and Boeing’s starliner projects. Depending on budget allocations, some government-backed initiatives may be scaled back in favor of commercial partnerships.

Airport and Infrastructure Investments

Aviation infrastructure has been one of the key points in the general economic vision by Trump. Throughout his first term, Trump constantly decried U.S. airports as compared to Asia and the Middle East. In 2025, his administration may advance the ball on megaproject modernizations at core hubs like New York’s JFK, Chicago’s O’Hare, and Los Angeles’ LAX. Yet sources of funding remain unclear, as Trump has long opposed major government spending bills unless the projects are yoked to private partnerships.

If the America First mentality trickles down to his administration’s infrastructure development policy, international investment into U.S. airport projects could become thinner on the ground. In some instances, that could slow modernization projects that have long relied on foreign capital.

Final Thoughts: Challenges and Opportunities for Global Aviation

With Trump back at the reins of power, it’s a potentially transformative moment of truth for aviation. Airlines might benefit from low fuel prices, corporate tax cuts, and infrastructural investments, but on the other side, they also risk getting severely disrupted from trade conflicts, reduced sustainability initiatives, and different defense priorities.

For Boeing, the stakes are particularly high: if China hastens its pivot away from US aircraft manufacturers, Boeing could lose a vital market to Airbus and COMAC. US airlines could face higher tariffs on imported aircraft, which would alter their fleet strategies.

Environmental concerns will also continue to be a contentious issue. While lower fuel prices may ease short-term operating costs, a weakened commitment to sustainability could put U.S. airlines at odds with global regulatory standards.

Ultimately, of course, whether Trump’s aviation policies prove successes or failures hinges on how effectively the industry modernizes to navigate new trade dynamics, fluctuating fuel prices, and shifting geopolitical landscapes. For 2025, airline chiefs, manufacturers, and global policy thinkers will observe with interest as Trump’s second term reimagines the flight path of aviation.

References

Financial Times (2024). What the US election means for corporate America.

Forbes (2024). How Trump’s trade policies could impact Boeing and Airbus.

The Economist (2024). The future of aviation under Trump’s second term.

ICAO Reports (2024). Sustainable Aviation and Regulatory Challenges.